Beating the System: The AnandTech Guide to Economic Upgrading
by Kristopher Kubicki & Jarred Walton on January 30, 2005 5:59 PM EST- Posted in
- Guides
Quantifying Price
Something that Anand and I like to talk about is buying the best hardware that you can for your dollar, today. If you think about the long run, your time is expensive. Even if you don't have a lot of money to spend on upgrades or a new configuration, purposely procrastinating can sometimes be the worst thing. Waiting for the "next best thing" always results in a perpetual cycle of more waiting, and even more so in the computer industry. Instead of beating around the bush, let's go back to the original statement that we made about the ideal time to upgrade.
The right time to upgrade can usually be modeled around how valuable additional Quality is to you.
The principle seems fairly obvious, but it's easy to get lost in the NDA launches and rave reviews. A former executive to a very large motherboard company once told me that selling computer hardware was almost identical to selling produce. Every day that hardware sits on the shelf in a warehouse is another day that it loses value (to the company). With the exception of the short term LCD and DRAM spot markets, virtually all computer hardware sells for less today than it did yesterday. Sometimes we see small fluctuations in price where demand out-weighs supply, but for the most part, we don't see significant changes in computer hardware pricing like other commodities. Due to the extreme pace at which hardware evolves, buying computer hardware can almost always be summed up as, "What you buy today is cheaper tomorrow."
Prices don't fluctuate to the point where a product introduced today will cost more six months from now, and the path from today until then continually decreases (though not necessarily linearly). Then why do we recommend not waiting for the next best thing when buying a new component? If you feel that it's time to buy a new component, your value of that component should out-weigh the Price – even over time. If you plan on buying an Athlon 64 3200+ today for $200 versus $100 a year from now, hopefully your value of the component can be quantified at more than $100 per year. To state the obvious, if an upgrade doesn't have any value to you, it isn't worth buying.
Now, let's back up for a second. When we buy new upgrades, we tend to look at singular components – this can actually be a costly habit. As we stated on the previous page, even if you have a slower processor, the money may be better spent on a video card than on a processor. Instead of picking out a particular component set from which to upgrade, a more economic upgrade path may be to consider all components that fit in a particular price range and determine their relative Quality.
Quantifying Quality
Even though Quality is a numerical representation of performance, features and service, finding a method to determine an exact value of several different components to fit your user habits shouldn't be too hard. If you spend most of your computer experience gaming, then relying on gaming benchmarks for the games that you use is the most practical step. If you feel that the time to upgrade is now, so that you can get better performance out of Half Life 2, then the first step would be to quantify the Quality that a new hardware upgrade will bring to your system. A certain video card might double performance, so its relative Quality in the computer is 200%.
On the other hand, if we feel that we need to upgrade to maximize our storage space, then quantifying Quality over different components becomes even easier. Any video card that we add to the system would increase storage space by 0%; thus, the relative Quality of a Radeon X800 Pro when maximizing storage space is 0%. Subconsciously, we all do this same process at some level or another when buying hardware.
The dicey part gets when we start quantifying data that doesn't have a real world correlation – or perhaps data that isn't entirely complete. Determining the exact performance increase from a Radeon 9600 Pro to a Radeon X850XT is not something that you'll readily see published on AnandTech or anywhere else. The quick and dirty trick to determine relative performance on that scale is to find an intermediate product and look at the performance between those two. For a certain application, a Radeon 9800 Pro might be twice as fast as a 9600 Pro, and we also might know that an X850XT is twice as fast as a 9800 Pro. The resultant relative Quality should be about 400%.
We call that the quick and dirty method of finding relative Quality, but the only true method of determining the relative quality of one component compared to another is to have a test scenario. This is possible for more mainstream configurations as you can see in a lot of our motherboard reviews, but it's a little harder in real life. Our best advice is to pick conservative estimates for your quality assumptions.
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arud - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link
Poser - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link
I've been thinking about upgrading my computer for the past 6 months or more. Gutting it, really, since once the motherboard goes, most of the other components will get upped too to prevent dumb bottlenecks -- I'm looking at around six to seven hundred dollars worth of upgrades. But, the thing that's held me back ISN'T waiting for the next big thing, or for prices to drop, it's that upgrading to Half-Life 2 or Doom 3 grade hardware is worth AT MOST $150.I love this site, I consider computer hardware to be a genuine hobby, but I can't justify to myself spending more than that on playing FPS video games. The price of a good PC gaming rig is so completely out of line with what it'd cost to just pick up an Xbox that I suspect I'll be sticking with strategy games for a very long time... that or buying a current or next gen console.
Eventually, I might find some "killer app" that is actually hardware-intensive (usably good speech recognition software with excellent OS integration?), but for the moment the only thing I do that challenges even my old 1400+ Athlon XP is gaming. I just can't bring myself to think that gaming on a PC is valuable enough to justify dropping the money.
This article was a cool read, because if nothing else, it made me think to put a number on how much I really would "value" or pay for better hardware.
Dragonbate - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link
LOL I can't help but think this article was a farce.cosmotic - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link
Next time maybe you should tell us what we should do. Like "If this is your setup, the average person would upgrade HERE" and give what you would upgrade to. This is like trying to sell something to some one but then never actually asking them if they want to buy it. You have all these details and then no real conclusion. When SHOULD I upgrade? I have no idea, and it's not worth my time to read all this stuff and then figure it all out. Again, a nice conclusion with a concrete example would be nice. And some else that would be nice would be like arrows on the graphs that say "this is when you should upgrade and for reason X, Y, and Z". The graphs mean nothing without an explination or point.Dranzerk - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link
I think the single hardest part of a PC is upgrading. If we did not have PC games how many here would be running the latest hardware? I would upgrade once every 2 years, instead of buying new hardware little at a time every month to make a new pc every 6 months. lolgaidin123 - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link
Great article! Granted most people won't actually do the formulas but this is a great article to link to when people moan about waiting for the next big thing. ;)Of course if you *need* the next big thing for the purpose you will use the computer for (ie SATAII or 802.11n) you have to wait...
Gaidin
archcommus87 - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link
But how is this reliable? The quality percentages are for one application only and even then are very estimated. And the cost per day of one quarter of NOT upgrading can vary greatly. If I'm gaming fine just now I'm not losing out on anything by not upgrading yet.MarkM - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link
Also, I think I might add, this is a hobby for most people, not a business. The whole point is to have fun, and sometimes the excitement of researching the new hardware is the best part. A cost/benefit analysis reduces the biggest benefit for some, the fun.MarkM - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link
Uhh ... that was interesting. Man, I'm an ANALYST for my career, I write cost/benefit analyses all the time, and even I was skimming by the last few pages of that!The one variable you didn't figure in (I think?) was the evaluator's time. Spending hours of your time calculating whehter it's workth it to spend the extra $50 may not be cost effective, in the gneral sense of resource cost. One thing I learned very early in my career is that there is a cost/beniefit ratio even in preparing the cost/benefit. If it is a relatively minor outlay, you need to apply heuristics over full blown analysis.
Still, I think this is perhaps a good intro to peopel not used to thinking in this way.
deathwalker - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link
Ah...the benifits of being an impulse buyer. I don't have to worry about stuff like this. If you want it...get it...trash the formulas.