Quantifying Price

Something that Anand and I like to talk about is buying the best hardware that you can for your dollar, today. If you think about the long run, your time is expensive. Even if you don't have a lot of money to spend on upgrades or a new configuration, purposely procrastinating can sometimes be the worst thing. Waiting for the "next best thing" always results in a perpetual cycle of more waiting, and even more so in the computer industry. Instead of beating around the bush, let's go back to the original statement that we made about the ideal time to upgrade.

The right time to upgrade can usually be modeled around how valuable additional Quality is to you.

The principle seems fairly obvious, but it's easy to get lost in the NDA launches and rave reviews. A former executive to a very large motherboard company once told me that selling computer hardware was almost identical to selling produce. Every day that hardware sits on the shelf in a warehouse is another day that it loses value (to the company). With the exception of the short term LCD and DRAM spot markets, virtually all computer hardware sells for less today than it did yesterday. Sometimes we see small fluctuations in price where demand out-weighs supply, but for the most part, we don't see significant changes in computer hardware pricing like other commodities. Due to the extreme pace at which hardware evolves, buying computer hardware can almost always be summed up as, "What you buy today is cheaper tomorrow."

Prices don't fluctuate to the point where a product introduced today will cost more six months from now, and the path from today until then continually decreases (though not necessarily linearly). Then why do we recommend not waiting for the next best thing when buying a new component? If you feel that it's time to buy a new component, your value of that component should out-weigh the Price – even over time. If you plan on buying an Athlon 64 3200+ today for $200 versus $100 a year from now, hopefully your value of the component can be quantified at more than $100 per year. To state the obvious, if an upgrade doesn't have any value to you, it isn't worth buying.

Now, let's back up for a second. When we buy new upgrades, we tend to look at singular components – this can actually be a costly habit. As we stated on the previous page, even if you have a slower processor, the money may be better spent on a video card than on a processor. Instead of picking out a particular component set from which to upgrade, a more economic upgrade path may be to consider all components that fit in a particular price range and determine their relative Quality.


Quantifying Quality

Even though Quality is a numerical representation of performance, features and service, finding a method to determine an exact value of several different components to fit your user habits shouldn't be too hard. If you spend most of your computer experience gaming, then relying on gaming benchmarks for the games that you use is the most practical step. If you feel that the time to upgrade is now, so that you can get better performance out of Half Life 2, then the first step would be to quantify the Quality that a new hardware upgrade will bring to your system. A certain video card might double performance, so its relative Quality in the computer is 200%.

On the other hand, if we feel that we need to upgrade to maximize our storage space, then quantifying Quality over different components becomes even easier. Any video card that we add to the system would increase storage space by 0%; thus, the relative Quality of a Radeon X800 Pro when maximizing storage space is 0%. Subconsciously, we all do this same process at some level or another when buying hardware.

The dicey part gets when we start quantifying data that doesn't have a real world correlation – or perhaps data that isn't entirely complete. Determining the exact performance increase from a Radeon 9600 Pro to a Radeon X850XT is not something that you'll readily see published on AnandTech or anywhere else. The quick and dirty trick to determine relative performance on that scale is to find an intermediate product and look at the performance between those two. For a certain application, a Radeon 9800 Pro might be twice as fast as a 9600 Pro, and we also might know that an X850XT is twice as fast as a 9800 Pro. The resultant relative Quality should be about 400%.

We call that the quick and dirty method of finding relative Quality, but the only true method of determining the relative quality of one component compared to another is to have a test scenario. This is possible for more mainstream configurations as you can see in a lot of our motherboard reviews, but it's a little harder in real life. Our best advice is to pick conservative estimates for your quality assumptions.


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  • Jedi2155 - Monday, January 31, 2005 - link

    Anand should really have a VGA and a CPU chart of some sort as well! I don't really trust tomshardware all that much.
    But then, most of us don't anyways :P.

    I like the article and its calculations tho...believe it or not....i use similar ones....
  • kmmatney - Monday, January 31, 2005 - link

    sorry about the third post - but there is one statement that I think hits the nail on the head:

    "Determining the exact performance increase from a Radeon 9600 Pro to a Radeon X850XT is not something that you'll readily see published on AnandTech or anywhere else."


    We can "almost" get this from Toms Hardware, from the VGA charts.

    http://graphics.tomshardware.com/graphic/20041004/...

    They don't have half-life 2, but there are enough benchmarks to at least allow for an informed decision. In fact, I used the article to help a friend buy a Radeon 9600 Pro, which was the best bang-for-buck at the time.

    Why can't Anandtech have something similar, or the ability to create a similar graph on demand? Having the ability to chart both video card and cpu upgrades would be the ultimate tool for the upgrader.



  • kmmatney - Monday, January 31, 2005 - link

    This article reminds me of something I always wanted. The ability to pull up benchmarks dynamically. I could put in my system specs, or select a similar procesor from a list. Untested speeds can be estimated to first order. Then I could pull up benchmarks from different video cards and compare exactly what I want.

    For now, I use the Toms Hardware video charts, as Anandtech doesn't have anything so comprehensive. A "Real-Time benchmark Engine" would be awesome for this.
  • kmmatney - Monday, January 31, 2005 - link

    I'm a bit qith #19. It pains me to pay more than ~$100 for a video card. My plan was to stay with my Ti4200, but I managed to Ebay off $120 in old hardware last week, which brings my 6600GT upgrade down to an affordable $90, minus whatever nmy old card sells for. I'm definately sticking with my Athlon XP for a while, though.


  • roostercrows - Monday, January 31, 2005 - link

    excellent article kristopher, as i have had all the components for my new anandtech high end computer (except the video cards) just sitting on my bench for three months now just waiting... i can't help but think about what a price gouging graph would look like for the 6800gt pci-e sli video cards......
  • Googer - Monday, January 31, 2005 - link

    #13, I agree; but for some of us doing cost benefit analysis is part of the fun too. I really enjoy doing my mathmatics when I have the opertunity to do so. For me It is all part of the research that goes in to learning about new hardware. Its a hobby for me too.
  • JarredWalton - Monday, January 31, 2005 - link

    The point of this articles wasn't to give everyone a specific decision. Some people are always waiting for the ideal time to upgrade. If you're happy with your current computer, then by no means do you need to upgrade. If you're disappointed with performance, however, and you start thinking something like, "I'll wait for SLI..." or "X800XL is coming soon..." or soemthing similar, is it really worth the wait?

    That's the whole point behind the "cost to not upgrade". How much are you willing to spend per day for a better computing experience? We arbitratily chose 25 cents, but suppose you're willing to spend 50 cents or a dollar? Given the model in the spreadsheets, you can plug in various prices and estimated depreciatioin rates, and suddenly it may not look so important to wait for the X800XL or whatever.

    The article certainly wasn't meant as a joke. It was intended as some reasoning behind our price guides. We don't often suggest people wait for the Next Big Thing, and the models presented here help to show why. We didn't even touch on the topic of market segmentation, which will often keep high-end parts at a higher price despite decreased production costs (witness SCSI, for example). There were plenty of other concepts that could also be applied. Hope that helps.

    (I helped quite a bit with the article, so I feel I can safely put in my two cents.)
  • roostercrows - Monday, January 31, 2005 - link

  • Poser - Monday, January 31, 2005 - link

    Thinking about it a bit more, I guess my situation (#19) could be wedged into the model you built pretty easily -- I don't have a Cost to Not Upgrade (CNU) of $0.25 a day, instead I have a NEGATIVE CNU. The longer I wait, the more cool gotta have 'em games will be released which I can't play on my old rig. That'll push up the value of current gen hardware.
  • Chuckles - Sunday, January 30, 2005 - link

    It looks like an interesting model. With some tweaking it looks like it may be valid for a variety of market segments. Cool.

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